What is the demand for SAFs in aviation?
If we want to achieve climate-neutral aviation by 2050, then the widespread introduction of SAF is a fundamental prerequisite. Current forecasts assume a demand of around 600 million metric tons per year. However, in 2024, only around 0.3 percent of the industry's global fuel demand was covered by sustainable fuels. That’s why the European Union (EU) adopted the ReFuelEU aviation initiative, which sets a minimum proportion of SAFs for all flights from EU airports. ReFuelEU aviation obligates fuel suppliers to ensure that the share of SAFs reaches 2 percent by 2025, 6 percent by 2030, and 70 percent by 2050. For synthetic fuels, a quota of 1.2 percent will apply starting in 2030; this will increase to 35 percent by 2050. Other countries are also making efforts to increase the proportion of SAFs. In the U.S., the main focus is on providing incentives through the Inflation Reduction Act, whereby fuel suppliers receive tax breaks if they sell SAF.
The aim of all these measures is to create a binding framework to stimulate demand. Another reason why SAFs aren’t yet a true alternative on the market is that they’re significantly more expensive than fossil kerosene.